Pursuant to the National Football League’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) with its players union, a football player becomes eligible to be drafted by the NFL three years after his high school class has graduated. For years, NFL and NCAA leaders alike praised this NFL rule on the grounds that it provided sufficient time for young men to develop and prepare physically and emotionally for the rigors of life in the NFL. Critics often compared the NFL rule with the National Basketball Association’s “one-and-done” provision in the NBA’s CBA, and concluded that the NFL indeed had the right approach. Plus, not that many players were leaving college early for the NFL.
Now, however, college football players, perhaps with the advice and guidance of agents, are much more likely to leave college early in an effort to join the ranks of the NFL. The reason is that the 2011 NFL CBA changed the compensation structure so that a player will not make “serious” money until his second contract. Hence, there is a clear economic incentive for a player to start his NFL employee clock ticking sooner rather than later.
This year, roughly 100 players declared themselves as early entrants into the NFL draft, up from 73 the year before, which in term was a significant increase from the year before that. The trend is clear: players increasingly will view college as only a three-year commitment (possibly four if they must sit out a year for transfer or medical reasons), thus opening up opportunities for college playing time for younger and younger players who might not be physically or mentally ready to contribute at the college level.
The same concerns expressed today about college basketball will then be expressed about college football: namely, that players are leaving school before they are truly ready, thus diluting the talent level both in the NCAA and in the NFL. Combine this with the diminishing numbers of high school football participants in many states as a result of worries related to concussions, as well as the increasing costs of insurance for high schools that sponsor football, and it is reasonable to have concerns about the future of college football.
This is somewhat ironic given the extent to which university presidents and boards of trustees have abandoned traditional, logical conference alignments to pursue the most lucrative football television rights deals available. Of course, everyone is gambling that America’s love affair with college football will continue despite increased medical concerns for the participants and despite more top players departing college early for the NFL, but what if our collective passion for football cools off and rights fees decline as a result?
Football, not basketball, is the economic driver of the dramatic changes we’ve seen recently in college sports, and further changes appear inevitable. Some have suggested that football players are likely to remain in college longer if the NCAA modifies the rules regarding amateurism to allow the players who generate the income to receive a greater share of that income. Even with those potential amendments to amateurism rules, however, I think there will still be a huge gap between an NFL paycheck and whatever a college student-athlete can be compensated. I think the reality of the NFL CBA inevitably will continue to lead to an annual rash of early departures by college football players.
On the other hand, maybe college football really is bulletproof. After all, college football already has survived significant public cynicism arising from examples of ethical shortcomings in football programs around the country, and the bar for ethical behavior of football coaches is not set particularly high. Maybe the NCAA and college football also can survive impending concussion litigation as well as impending litigation related to the rights to players’ images and likenesses.
One thing is clear: the product of college football will suffer as increasing numbers of the top players leave college early. Whether it will suffer enough to drive rights fees down and call into question the perplexing conference alignments we now have is the key question. For now, it’s full speed ahead with a new playoff system and new conference networks. I wonder if in fifteen years we’ll look back and ask ourselves why we couldn’t see the bubble of college football beginning to burst.
Thoughts? Please contact me at mgilleran@scu.edu. Thanks.